Why Successful People Probably Get Too Much Credit
Research suggests we over-reward people for what is essentially sheer, dumb luck
Every success requires a dash of luck. Sure, you may have landed a great job based on your excellent work ethic, but it also helped that you saw the job listing the moment it was posted, or had a great day that helped you ace your interview. Maybe you were in the right place at the right time, or knew the right people.
One thing is clear. According to recent research, when it comes to rewarding success, we have a strong tendency to give lucky people too much credit.
To study how managers reward skill versus luck, economists Lionel Page and Romain Gauriot turned to the literal “lucky shot”: the excruciating, fans-going-nuts moment when a soccer player shoots at the goal, and the ball hits the post. They analyzed 13,000 videos of shots that bounced off the goal post. In 10,679 cases, the ball bounced away, and in 2,387 cases, the ball bounced off the post and into the goal.
Then the team compared the scoring shots with non-scoring shots, carefully analyzing the players’ technique and skill. Although they found no differences in the skill levels of the two groups of players, those who scored by chance got far more kudos, including positive press…
