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Good Decision-Making Depends on an ‘Archer’s Mindset’

A professional poker player’s advice for optimizing outcomes

Woman aiming with a bow and arrow at a target.
Photo: hobo_018/Getty Images

Most decisions are ultimately a guess. You can’t be certain that anything you do will lead to a specific outcome, and you can’t know the exact likelihood of any outcome at all. Part of becoming a better decision-maker is shifting your mindset about guessing.

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Annie Duke

Annie Duke

Author of Thinking in Bets and How to Decide. Co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education