A way to calculate whether a risk is worth taking

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🎲 Today’s tip: When you’re facing a tough decision, ask yourself: If you took a risk and failed, could you live with that outcome?

Say you get an opportunity to take on a new side gig. It’s something that interests you and — who knows? — you might even be great at it. But you’re pretty comfortable with your current schedule and workload. So you pass, figuring, hey, nothing is lost by sitting back.

Except that’s not true. As Niklas Göke explains, too many people don’t consider opportunity costs when weighing their options: “We dismiss the fact that choosing one thing means not choosing another,” he writes. “As a result, we default to perceived certainty much more than we should.”

To avoid regret down the road, imagine what would happen if your risk was a failure. It’s a question that works for choices both large and small, Göke notes: “Could you laugh off a bad meal with your friends and still hope the next new restaurant will be awesome? Could you find a deep sense of satisfaction in a career move that ends up not panning out?” If the answer is yes, then imagine what your life would be like if you succeeded.

📚 More from Forge on making great decisions:

A Guide to Overcoming FOBO, the Fear of Better Options
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A Decision-Making Technique for the Chronically Indecisive
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24 Different Ways to Make a Decision
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